The Arab region: from Sykes-Picot to the new Middle East

This study examines the transformations of the regional system in the Middle East from the post-Sykes-Picot period to the dynamics of the “New Middle East,” in light of the regional conflicts after 2003. It also examines the geopolitical, strategic, and legal factors that have reshaped the balance of power, with a focus on the roles of regional and international actors, most notably the United States, Iran, Turkey, and Israel. In this context, the study adopts a forward-looking analytical approach, based on a historical reading and deconstruction of political and military practices, leading to an analysis of possible scenarios for the future of the region. It also examines the problems of international law related to the use of force in light of the decline in the effectiveness of its rules in the face of field transformations. Hence, the study concludes that the Middle East is moving toward protracted wars and a redistribution of influence, without a formal collapse of the regional system, with signs emerging of its transgression of traditional arrangements. It also indicates the limited ability of any party to impose comprehensive hegemony, in light of complex balances and multiple actors. Accordingly, the study raises questions about the future of the nation-state and the possibility of redrawing borders, or reproducing the regional system within more flexible formulas.