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Redefining Gulf Deterrence: How Can the UAE Formulate a New Security Doctrine after the Iranian War?

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Authors

Name: Assem Farouk Abderahman | Country: Lebanese Republic
Department / Fine Specialization: Political Science
Institution / University: Lebanese University
📧 assem.abderahman@gmail.com 0009-0009-5617-4724

Abstract

The Gulf security environment has undergone significant changes in the nature of threats and instruments of conflict, particularly following the 2025 Israel–Iran war, which highlighted the growing interaction among military, missile, cyber, maritime, and informational capabilities, as well as threats targeting critical infrastructure and supply chains. This study examines whether the traditional deterrence model, primarily based on military power and external security guarantees, remains sufficient for addressing such a multidimensional environment, using the United Arab Emirates as a case study. It aims to analyze the evolution of deterrence, identify transformations in the Gulf security environment, examine the UAE’s strengths and vulnerabilities, evaluate the limitations of its existing deterrence model, and propose an analytical framework for multidimensional Emirati deterrence. Further, the study employs a descriptive-analytical approach and a case-study methodology, supported by a strategic perspective. It concludes that recent developments do not render traditional deterrence obsolete; rather, they require its reconfiguration within an integrated framework combining deterrence by punishment, deterrence by denial, and resilience. Such a framework should integrate military, maritime, cyber, economic, institutional, and international partnership capabilities. The study further argues that the central challenge lies not merely in possessing multiple capabilities, but in integrating them within a unified national structure for early warning, crisis management, and the protection and continuity of critical state functions.
Keywords: Gulf Deterrence, United Arab Emirates, Multidimensional Deterrence, Cybersecurity, National Resilience, Maritime Security
Research Language: Arabic
How to cite:
ElQarar Journal for Peer-Reviewed Scientific Research, Vol. 12, Issue 35, Year (3), pp. 283-315.
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⚖️ Conflict of Interest:

The author/authors declare no conflict of interest regarding the publication of this research.

💰 Funding:

This study did not receive any financial support or grant from any public, private, or non-profit entity.

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